Krugman: Innovation is slowing down

Paul Krugman spoke with author Charlie Stross last week in Montreal. During the conversation, which took place at the World Science Fiction Convention, Krugman outlined how innovation has slowed as time has gone on:

What you came out believing if you went to the New York’s World Fair in 1964 was that we were going to have this enormously enhanced mastery of the physical universe. That we were going to have undersea cities and supersonic transports everywhere. And there hasn’t been that kind of dramatic change. It’s not just that airplanes are no faster. My favorite test, which shows something about me, is the kitchen. If you walked into a kitchen from the 1950’s it would look a little pokey, but you’d know what to do. It wouldn’t be that difficult. If someone from the 1950’s walked into a kitchen from 1909 they’d be pretty unhappy - they might just be able to manage. If someone from 1909 went to one from 1859, you would actually be hopeless. The big change was really between 1840 and the 1920’s, in terms of what the physical nature of modern life is like. There’s been nothing like that since.

Krugman’s point—that innovation has petered out—is a good one. What does stagnant innovation mean for America? It means that we’re using old, inefficient policies, and new ideas aren’t being propagated. It means the challenges we face in energy and sustainability are going unmet, because the solutions aren’t being implemented. To continue Krugman’s kitchen analogy, it’s as if we’re getting all of our calories from the same kind of food. There might be newer, more efficient, better-tasting foods being invented—dishes that would give us the energy and nutrition we need—but we’re still cooking and eating the same food.

In the last decade, people have realized that they need to eat healthier food if they want to stay physically fit and competitive. America needs to realize the same thing. That’s why the National Energy Summit is bringing together policy, scientific, and business leaders to create solutions for sustainable energy—for America, and for the world.

A transcript of Krugman and Stross’s conversation is available online, as is an mp3 of the discussion.

— Matthew Faraci

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